长江经济带经济增长与资源环境的协同效应及其驱动力分析

基于人口、资源、环境与经济、社会协调发展的视角,引入生态系统服务价值评价方法构建资源环境成本核算模型以及经济增长与资源环境的协调发展度、相对协调发展度模型,对长江经济带区域经济增长与资源环境的协同效应进行分析、并以偏最小二乘回归方法对其驱动因素进行解析。计算出1983–2012年长江经济带7省2市资源环境成本由4736.55×10^12元攀升至15 359.45×10^12元、占全国同期比重由31.1%降至19.7%,协调发展度由0.295升至1.506,各时段相对协调发展度均高于全国平均水平;1983、1993、2003年3个时段驱动长江经济带区域经济增长与资源环境协调发展的主要因素是资源环境成本相对较低,研究区对推动我国经济、社会协调发展均做出较大贡献;2012年以后随着我国第一、三产业增加值整体上持续增加,长江经济带的比较优势趋于弱化。未来,长江经济带有关省市应积极完善主体功能区规划实施细则,抓住机遇持续推进产业结构调整,通过各个层面实施生态恢复补偿、提高资源利用效率、降低环境损失成本等提高经济发展质量,进一步促进区域经济增长与资源、环境协调发展。

The Driving Forces and Synergistic Effect between Regional Economic Growth,Resources and the Environment in the Yangtze River Economic Zone

From the viewpoints of population,resources,environment and economic-social development,we establish the models of accounting for resource and environmental costs and coordinated（or relative coordinated） development degrees between economic growth and resources and the environment using the evaluation method of ecosystem service value.Synergistic effects between regional economic growth and resources and the environment in the Yangtze River Economic Zone was analyzed and driving forces were analyzed by regression of partial least squares.We found that from 1983 to 2012,resource and environmental costs in the Yangtze River Economic Zone（including seven provinces and two municipalities） increased from 4736.55 trillion CNY to 15 359.45 trillion CNY and corresponding weights dropped from 31.1% to 19.7% compared to the national level.The degree of coordinated development rose from 0.295 to 1.506,higher than the national average.In the years 1983,1993 and 2003,the main factor that drove the coordinated development of regional economic growth,resources and the environment was low level resource and environmental costs.With continuous increases in primary and tertiary industrial added values after 2012,the advantage of the Yangtze River Economic Zone has weakened.In the future,provinces should improve the rules and regulations on planning and implementing main functional areas,promote adjustment of industrial structure,restore ecology,improve resource utilization efficiency and reduce environmental loss costs to enhance quality of economic development and promote the coordinated development of regional economic growth and resources and the environment.