| Abstract: | It is argued that the research agenda on fertility decline needs to be explanatory rather than operational and not tied to government policy justification. The research agenda should be set in the broader developmental and geographic contexts and with consideration of cultural practices. Demographic and Health Surveys provide limited biosocial data, which does not provide a fuller analysis of the factors affecting contraceptive use and effectiveness. Clear associations are drawn between rising contraceptive use and fertility decline and are used as supports for national and international policy makers. Although policy formation may be justified by this research agenda, the view is taken that this is "bad science." Kenya has been used as a model for population change in Africa. Kenya is viewed as a country with obvious direct government involvement in policies on fertility reduction, which mirror the ideological biases of the global model. The global model assumes a universal relationship between fertility and contraceptive prevalence and attaches little significance to cultural differences. However, research recognizes that in Africa family relationships, land tenure, and economic organization are different and highly variable. If economic and social variables on Kenya were available, it is possible that the economic change hypothesis could be proven. Kenya has great regional differences and wide gaps in levels of development. For many countries population growth is the key factor in development, and policies reflect the threat of loan conditions or reductions in foreign aid. Many African countries moved in the direction of reducing population growth through improved health and education, more jobs, improved status of women, and other indirect measures. This approach relies on the Western model of demographic transition. This author argues that knowledge and conclusions about fertility in Africa are more conditioned by ideology rather than technical concerns. In the case of Kenya ideology is supported by research, but a fuller explanation of family formation is not yet available. Kenya's population policy is based on the contraception hypothesis, and data are not yet available for testing other alternative child mortality or economic change hypotheses and constructively informing policy makers about fertility decline. |
