Level of Lake Ladoga at Possible Climate Changes

A transfer function model with climatic indices as the input and the lake level as the output is proposed to describe the response of a lake to climate changes. The climate indices include air temperature and atmospheric precipitation. The model is used to assess the response of the Lake Ladoga level to different climate changes. It is shown that the significant deviations of the lake level from the values corresponding to the modern climate are associated with changes in the numerical characteristics of climate indices and can be attributed to the displacement of the boundaries of climatic seasons. In this case, significant changes in the lake level may take place even without visible deviations of the annual averages of temperature and precipitation from their long-term standards.