对流参数化在暴雨预报中的个例试验

暴雨过程中对流起着重要作用。为了做好暴雨预报,本文用个例试验了三种对流潜热的计算方案:Manabe等的对流调整,Kurihara的对流调整及郭晓岚的对流参数化方法。计算结果表明,对流雨区和实况基本吻合,雨量比只考虑大尺度凝结时有所改进。总的来讲,对流雨区的预报以Manabe的对流调整方法最好,而形势预报则以郭晓岚的参数化法最好。

EXPERIMENT OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION IN THE NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL

It is important to incorporate cumulus convection in the numerical prediction model for heavy rainfall. In this paper two connective adjustment pzocedures and Kuo's parameterization are applied to a case study and used to evaluate connective precipitation. The computed precipitation area is agreement with the observed although there are still some discrepancy. Precipitation rate estimates show improvemeat over versions which followed only stable heating. One of the adjustment procedures is the best for prediction on precipitation areas, on the other hand, Kuo's parameterization gives better result for prediction of weather systems.