| 自然灾害风险评估与灾害易损性研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 张蓓蕾, 彭骁, 周浩波. 宁波市地震灾害风险初步评估[J]. 地震科学进展 , 2020, (4): 22-27. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-7780.2020.04.002 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张蓓蕾 彭骁 周浩波 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.宁波市地震监测预报中心，浙江宁波 315000 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省地震局科技项目（2018zjj02）资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用自然灾害风险评估经典模型结合宁波实际，探索建立地震灾害风险评估指标体系，并用德尔菲专家法和层次分析法，研究确定指标权重。通过该指标体系，尝试对各区（县）市的地震灾害风险进行评估。通过风险指数，相对定量地反映各地的地震灾害损失风险水平和薄弱环节，为城市防震减灾与应急管理对策制定提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险评估 指标体系 德尔菲法 层次分析法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-09-19 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019-12-09 |
Preliminary risk assessment of earthquake disasters in Ningbo |
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| Beilei Zhang, Xiao Peng, Haobo Zhou. Preliminary risk assessment of earthquake disasters in Ningbo[J]. Progress in Earthquake Sciences, 2020, (4): 22-27. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-7780.2020.04.002 |
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| Authors: | Beilei Zhang Xiao Peng Haobo Zhou |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Ningbo Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction Center，Zhejiang Ningbo 315000，China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the classical model of natural disaster risk assessment and Ningbo’s reality, this paper explores the establishment of an index system for earthquake disaster risk assessment. Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process are used to study and determine the index weight. Through the risk index, the risk level and weak links of earthquake disaster losses in different regions are relatively quantitative reflected. This paper provides reference for the formulation of countermeasures for urban earthquake prevention, disaster reduction and emergency management. |
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| Keywords: | risk assessment index system delphi method analytic hierarchy process |
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