| 震级一频度曲线呈系统性起伏的可能性及影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱建钢,张跃国.震级一频度曲线呈系统性起伏的可能性及影响[J].四川地震,1992(3):5-12. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱建钢 张跃国 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川省地震局，四川省地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 自从对全球而言的古登堡—里克特关系:lgN(m)=a-bm,被推广应用于各具体的地震区带的地震活动性研究以来,有成功的例子,有艰难但仍获解释的例子,也有谨慎但论据充足的反例。其实,对于第二种情况而言,也未必就不是反例。本文拟从数学反证的角度,证明对于具体的地震区带而言,其震级-频度曲线呈现系统性起伏是可能的。考虑到震级-频度曲线在短临预报和中长期预报中应用广泛,本文还简要评述了如果忽视其系统性起伏可能导致的后果。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震 震级 频度曲线 系统性起伏 |
SYSTEMATIC FLUCTUATION OF MAGNITUDE-FREQUENCY CURVE: POSSIBILITY AND INFLUENCE |
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| Zhu Jiangang and Zhang Yaoguo.SYSTEMATIC FLUCTUATION OF MAGNITUDE-FREQUENCY CURVE: POSSIBILITY AND INFLUENCE[J].Earthquake Research in Sichuan,1992(3):5-12. |
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| Authors: | Zhu Jiangang and Zhang Yaoguo |
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| Institution: | Seismological Bureau of sichuan Province |
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| Abstract: | Since the Gutenberg-Richter relation(logN(m) =a-bm)which had been established for worldwide data was spread and applied in studying seismicities on different seismic areas or zones, there have been a number of successful examples,hard but grudgingly explicable examples and reverse examples with prudential and ample evidence. Actually,it is afraid that the second case might be reverse examples. In the light of reductio ad absurdum on mathematics this paper tries to testify that the systematic fluctuation in magnitude-frequency curve is possible for specific seismic zones. Considering spreading application of the magnitude-frequency curve on middle and long-term to shor-term predictions,briefly this paper discusses possible results caused by overlooking the systematic fluctuation. |
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| Keywords: | Magnitude- frequency curve systematic fluctuation magnitude- frequency relation reductio ad absurdurm of mathematics |
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