河北省北部地震灾害经济损失预测

地震灾害经济损失预测是震害预测的重要组成部分，在河北省北部地震危险性概率分析、建筑物、生命线工程等震害预测的基础上，确定了震害经济损失预测的各种参数，以乡（镇）、区（市辖区）为基础统计单元，采用动态预测模型，预测河北省北部２００５年前震害经济期望损失：直接经济损失１９．７４亿元，总经济损失３１．９２亿元。若怀来发生５．５级和６级假想地震，震害经济损失分别为３．０６亿元和４．８２亿元，死亡１人和１１

PREDICTION OF ECONOMIC LOSSES CAUSED BY SEISMIC HAZARD IN NORTHERN PART OF HEBEI PROVINCE

The prediction of economic losses caused by seismic hazard is an important part of the prediction of seismic hazard. Based on the probability analysis of seismic risk and the prediction seismic hazard of buildings and life line engneerings in northern part of Hebei Province,various parameters of the prediction of economic losses caused by seismic hazard are determined. Taking the township and the district(under the city)as basic statistical units,using dynamic prediction model,the expected economic losses caused by seismic hazard before the year of 2005 in northern part of Hebei Province are predicted as follows: the direct economic losses will be one thousand nine hundred and seventy-four million yuan Renminbi,the total economic losses will be three thousand one hundred and ninety-two million yuan. If an earthquake of magnitude 5. 5 or 6 is assumed to occur in Huailai,the economic losses will be three hundred and six million yuan and four hundrde and eightytwo million yuan, one person and eleven persons will be dead respectively caused by seismic hazard. The countermesures to reduce economic losses caused by sets mic are presented. The research not only can provide scentific basis for a quick evaluation of economic losses caused by future seismic hazard in the researched region but also its prediction method can be used in the prediction of economic losses caused by seismic hazard in other regions.