北京塔院井水位短临预报指标的研究 |
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引用本文: | 张大维,田竹君.北京塔院井水位短临预报指标的研究[J].地震地质,1994,16(2):179-187. |
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作者姓名: | 张大维 田竹君 |
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作者单位: | 国家地震局地质研究所 |
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摘 要: | 对塔院井3年水位、气压、固体的逐时值进行一系列数据处理,并用三角多项式拟合以消除年周期影响,把水位日气压系数和水位残差日均方差的余差作为塔院井短临预报指标,改进了水位前兆异常的提取方法。同时用熵的概念对这两个参数做出较客观的评价,计算出它们的前兆效益水平分别达到0.65和0.59,说明其较好的反映了地震的前兆信息
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关 键 词: | 水位气压系数 水位残差均方差 北京 水位短临预报 |
STUDY OF THE INDEX OF ANOMALOUS WATER LEVELS IN THE TAYAN WELL,BEIJING WITH RESPECT TO THE SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES |
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Abstract: | A series of processing of the data obtained from the hourly-measured water levels as well asthe data of the atmosphere-pressure and the earth tide was made. The triangular-pressure fittingwas used to rule out the effect of the annual perieds.Following taking both the factors of the at-mosphere-pressure related water levels and the remaining errors of the mean square errors of thewater level rasiduals as an index for the short-term prediction of earthquakes, it has been im-proved to refine the precursory anomalies of the water level.The concept of“entrophy”has beenadopted to make a relativety objective evaluation of these parameters under question.The effec-tive precusory anomalies may be up to 0.65 and 0. 59,suggesting it is better representative of theprecusory infomation of earthquakes |
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Keywords: | Water level-atmosphere pressure factor Residual error Beijing Water level related short-term prediction |
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