城市建构筑物地震损失预测研究

本文提出了预测城市建构筑物在不同烈度下地震灾害损失的简易方法。首先分析了影响城市建构筑物抗震能力的3个因素——抗震设防情况、建筑年代和结构类型；然后提出了建构筑物抗震能力指数的概念，并确定了将上述3因素综合成建构筑物抗震能力指数的方法；最后利用“九五”期间所做的大中城市的震害预测结果统计回归出房屋抗震能力指数与地震灾害损失——人员伤亡、经济损失和震后恢复时间的关系。由此可以得到建构筑物在不同烈度下地震灾害损失的简易计算方法。

A study on disaster loss prediction caused by damaged structures under earthquake

The method of predicting earthquake disaster loss caused by damaged structures under earthquakes of various intensities is developed in this paper. At first, three factors(earthquake resistance condition, construction time and structure type) affecting anti-seismic ability of structures are presented. The conception on seismic ability index of structures is defined. And the method,by which the three factors mentioned above are synthesized into a structural seismic index, is presented. At last,the statistical relations between the seismic ability index of structures and the earthquake disaster loss,i.e. seismic casualty, economic loss and recovery time, are found utilizing the cities' prediction results of earthquake disasters, which are made during the period of the Nineth Five-Year Plan.