缺资料城市洪灾损失率函数构建方法及应用

很多城市缺乏洪灾灾情资料，导致缺少洪灾损失量化的有效手段。为满足城市洪涝日益严峻的风险管理需求，亟需缺灾情资料城市的洪灾损失定量评估方法。提出了"因子变异-动态比拟-目标驱动-情景拟合"的缺灾情资料洪灾损失率函数构建方法:借鉴等比例替代思想，采用多引用对象和多特征指标构建变异比拟因子；建立以变差系数最小为目标的动态比拟方法，形成移植样本矩阵；以Beta分布概率最大为驱动目标，确定水深-损失率拟合序列；设置多拟合情景，以拟合相关系数最大为准则，优选洪灾损失率函数。以郑州市为例，模拟4种土地利用类型的洪灾损失率函数，结果表明，本文提出的缺资料城市洪灾损失率函数构建方法可行，特征组合指标呈现动态变化性，多种函数组合拟合效果最优。

Construction methods and applications of flood loss rate functions for cities lacking data

The lack of flood disaster data in many cities has led to an insufficiency of effective means to quantify flood losses in these cities. To meet the increasingly severe risk management requirements of urban flooding, there is an urgent need of implementing a quantitative assessment method for quantifying the flood losses in cities lacking disaster data. The method of "factor variation-dynamic matching-objective-driven-scenario fitting" was proposed to construct the flood loss rate functions with lack of data. In this study, based on the idea of equiproportional substitution, a variance analogy factor was constructed using multiple reference objects and multiple characteristic indicators; a dynamic analogy method was established to form a transplantation sample matrix to minimize the coefficient of variation; the water depth-loss rate fitting sequence was determined to maximize the probability of beta distribution; multiple fitting scenarios were set, and the preferred flood loss rate function was selected with the criterion of maximizing the fitting correlation coefficient. Taking Zhengzhou City as an example, the flood loss rate functions of 4 land use types were simulated. The results demonstrated that the proposed method for establishing flood loss rate function in cities lacking data was feasible; the characteristic combination indexes showed dynamic variability and the fitting effect of multiple-function combinations was optimal.