上海及周边潜在震源区对上海长周期基岩地震动参数影响分析

针对上海及邻近区域划分的46 个潜在震源区，采用概率地震危险性分析方法计算上海中心地区基岩地震动参数，分析对反应谱不同周期起主要影响的潜在震源区，并研究主要潜在震源区对不同周期反应谱的概率贡献。研究结果表明:对于长周期反应谱，远距离高震级潜在震源区概率贡献随着周期的增加而增大，甚至超过场地所在潜在震源区的概率贡献；在上海地区进行长周期项目地震安全性评价中，应充分考虑150 km以外的高震级潜在震源区的影响；对于上海地区的超高层建筑等长周期建筑物而言，长江口、南黄海等地区的地震影响风险较大，郯城地区的地震影响也不容忽视，应引起重视。 

Analysis of the influence of Shanghai and its surrounding potential seismic sources on long-period bedrock ground motion parameters in Shanghai

In this paper, 46 potential seismic sources are divided for Shanghai and its adjacent areas, and the bedrock ground motion parameters in the central area of Shanghai are calculated by using the probabilistic seismic risk analysis method. The potential seismic sources that have a major impact on different periods of the response spectrum are analyzed, and the probability contribution of main potential source areas to different periodic response spectra is studied. The results show that for long period response spectrum, the probability contribution of the potential source area of long-distance high magnitude earthquakes increases with the increase of the period, and even exceeds the probability contribution of the potential source area where the site is located; in the seismic safety evaluation of long-period projects in Shanghai, the impact of potential source areas with high magnitude beyond 150 km should be fully considered; for long period structures such as super high-rise buildings in Shanghai, the seismic impact risk in the Yangtze River Estuary and the South Yellow Sea is large, and the seismic impact in Tancheng area can not be ignored, which should be paid attention to.