水温变暖对西北太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的影响

根据影响西北太平洋柔鱼栖息地分布的主导环境因子—海表面温度，基于最大熵模型，利用1996-2005年气候历史数据和两种不同情景（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下的气候预估数据，分析了1996-2005年、2021-2030年、2051-2060年、2090-2100年主要捕捞月份（7-10月）柔鱼潜在栖息地变化。结果表明，柔鱼渔场纬度方向空间分布呈季节性南北移动；随着未来气候变化，在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下，2021-2030年、 2051-2060年、 2090-2100年7-10月柔鱼潜在栖息地分布较1996-2005年7-10月均呈现向北极移动趋势，适宜面积增加。推测柔鱼渔场季节性南北移动可能受各月适宜海表面温度范围变化的影响，在RCP4.5情景下，到21世纪末，各月柔鱼潜在最适宜生境向北移动1°～2°，适宜面积增加3%～13%；在RCP8.5情景下，到21世纪末，各月柔鱼潜在最适宜生境向北移动3°～5°，适宜面积增加42%～80%。

Impacts of ocean warming on potential habitat distribution of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

Based on the sea surface temperature (SST), which is the most dominant environmental climate factor affecting the distribution of squid, the potential habitat changes of Ommastrephes bartramii in July to October in 1996?2005, 2021?2030, 2051?2060 and 2090?2100 are analyzed using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with the historical climate data from 1996 to 2005 and the projection climate data from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that the fishing grounds of O. bartramii performs a seasonal north-south migration. Meanwhile, as the seasonal north-south migration of O. bartramii may be affected by the suitable SST range in fishing season, with the feature climate change the potential habitat distribution of O. bartramii from July to September in 2021?2030, 2051?2060 and 2090?2100 will move northward and the suitable habitat area will increase compare to 1996?2005 under both scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.0. Under scenario of RCP4.5, the potential most suitable habitat for O. bartramii will move northward by 1°?2° and the suitable habitat area will increase by 3%?13% by the end of the 21st century. Under scenario of RCP 8.5, the potential most suitable habitat for O. bartramii will move northward by 3°?5° and the suitable habitat area will increase by 42%?80% by the end of the 21st century.