苏州市耕地面积变化的社会经济驱动力差异性分析

基于1972—2005年苏州市统计数据,利用主成分分析和多元线性回归分析苏州市初级生产阶段和工业化阶段耕地面积变化的驱动因子。结果表明:人均地区生产总值和总人口的增加是导致苏州市初级生产阶段和工业化阶段耕地面积减少的最主要驱动因子;而产业结构升级在苏州市初级生产阶段对耕地面积减少起到了推动作用,在工业化阶段则减缓了经济发展对耕地占用的压力;城市化率的提高在工业化阶段对耕地面积减少起到了减缓作用。在工业化阶段,苏州市不同地区耕地面积变化的驱动因子也存在一定的差异。

Analysis on the Socioeconomic Driving Forces Differences of Cultivated Land Area Change in Suzhou City

The contradiction between economic development and cultivated land protection is increasingly prominent in developed areas of China,and thus the study on the socioeconomic driving factors of cultivated land area reduction is of great importance.Based on statistical data from 1972 to 2005 in Suzhou City,the study period was divided into primary production stage and industrialization stage.The driving forces of cultivated land area change in the two stages were analyzed by PCA and multiple linear regression.The result showed that the increase of per capita GDP and population made the most contribution to cultivated land decrease in the primary production stage and industrialization stage.The upgrading of industrial structure accelerated the cultivated land decrease in the primary production stage,but restrained the cultivated land decrease in the industrialization stage.The promotion of urbanization rate also restrained the cultivated land decrease in the industrialization stage.The paper also analyzed the driving forces of cultivated land area change in the industrialization stage in different counties of Suzhou.The result showed that the increasing of population made the most contribution to cultivated land decrease in urban area;the increasing of per capita GDP made the most contribution to cultivated land decrease in Changshu,Zhangjiagang,Kunshan and Wujiang;the most important driving forces of cultivated land decrease in Taicang are both the per capita GDP and population.However,the urbanization rate and industrial structure made rather different effect on cultivated land area change in different counties.