Solar variability and stochastic effects on climate

The effect of fluctuations on a simple energy balance model is examined. A new, long characteristic time scale referring to the passage between different stable climatic states is identified. It is shown that a weak external forcing whose period is comparable to this scale enables the system to switch between different states with a high probability. The connection with glaciation cycles is pointed out.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands.