Protected areas as a double edge sword: An analysis of factors driving urbanisation in their surroundings

Protected areas (PAs) are the most effective tools to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services. They have proven to be effective in stopping extensive land use conversion in well-conserved terrestrial ecosystems. However, land cover changes around PAs threaten biodiversity and ecosystem services within their limits and reduce ecological connectivity. In this study, we analysed the urban sprawls on the boundaries of 159 PAs (national, regional, and natural parks) in Spain, using 2.5 and 5 km non-protected buffer zones from 1990 to 2018. We clustered PAs based on biophysical and socio-economic characteristics and modelled urban sprawl in different buffers and periods. Hierarchical clustering revealed three groups of PAs: (a) proximate urban parks, (b) mountainous parks, and (c) parks in the Madrid autonomous region. We found that urbanisation in the surroundings of PAs in Spain has nearly doubled since 1990. General linear models explained a significant proportion of the urbanisation trends observed, with the number of municipalities in the boundary of the PA, the distance to a main road, and the distance to a big city acting as the most important drivers of urban sprawl. Our results also show that some PAs exert significant effects on urbanisation trends in their surroundings through the park-view effect. Finally, we highlight three coexisting phenomena that might explain the observed urban sprawl processes: (a) PAs attracting urbanisation in their surroundings due to the park-view effect, (b) PAs as a deterrent for urban sprawl within their limits, and (c) PAs occupying residual areas among previously urbanised lands.