Scaling smallholder tree cover restoration across the tropics |
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| Institution: | 1. The Nature Conservancy, 4245 Fairfax Dr, Arlington, VA 22203, USA;2. University of Oxford, United Kingdom;3. University of Barcelona, Barcelona 690-696 0834, Spain;4. The Brattle Group, 1800 M Street NW, Suite 700 North, Washington, DC 20036, USA;5. The Nature Conservancy, Brasilia Distrito Federal 71530-065, Brazil;6. The Nature Conservancy, 31 El Molo Drive, off Maji Mazuri Rd Lavington, P.O. Box 19738-00100 GPO, Nairobi, Kenya;7. The Nature Conservancy, 37, Second Floor, Link Road, Lajpat Nagar, Part-3, New Delhi 110024, India;8. University of Notre Dame, 4115 Jenkins Nanovic Halls, Notre Dame, IN 46556-5677, USA;9. The Nature Conservancy, Asia Pacific Conservation, 4245 Fairfax Dr, Arlington, VA 22203, USA;10. International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 1639 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA;11. NC State University, College of Natural Resources, Jordan Hall NA, NC State University, Raliegh, NC, USA;12. The Nature Conservancy, International Business Center, Room 303, 88 Pyay Road, Yangon, Myanmar;13. Department of Sociology, Northwestern University, 1810 Chicago Ave, Evanston, IL 60208, USA;14. The Nature Conservancy, Avenida Paulista, 2439, Edifício Eloy Chaves, conjunto 91, São Paulo CEP 01311-300, Brazil;15. Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, 4108 Grainger Hall, NC 277708, USA;p. National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;q. The Nature Conservancy, B4-2 Qijiayuan Diplomatic Compound, No. 9 Jianwai Dajie, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100600, China |
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| Abstract: | Restoring tree cover in tropical countries has the potential to benefit millions of smallholders through improvements in income and environmental services. However, despite their dominant landholding shares in many countries, smallholders’ role in restoration has not been addressed in prior global or pan-tropical restoration studies. We fill this lacuna by using global spatial data on trees and people, national indicators of enabling conditions, and micro-level expert information. We find that by 2050, low-cost restoration is feasible within 280, 200, and 60 million hectares of tropical croplands, pasturelands, and degraded forestlands, respectively. Such restoration could affect 210 million people in croplands, 59 million people in pasturelands and 22 million people in degraded forestlands. This predominance of low-cost restoration opportunity in populated agricultural lands has not been revealed by prior analyses of tree cover restoration potential. In countries with low-cost tropical restoration potential, smallholdings comprise a significant proportion of agricultural lands in Asia (～76 %) and Africa (～60 %) but not the Americas (～3%). Thus, while the Americas account for approximately half of 21st century tropical deforestation, smallholder-based reforestation may play a larger role in efforts to reverse recent forest loss in Asia and Africa than in the Americas. Furthermore, our analyses show that countries with low-cost restoration potential largely lack policy commitments or smallholder supportive institutional and market conditions. Discussions among practitioners and researchers suggest that four principles – partnering with farmers and prioritizing their preferences, reducing uncertainty, strengthening markets, and mobilizing innovative financing – can help scale smallholder-driven restoration in the face of these challenges. |
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| Keywords: | Forest landscape restoration Nature-based solutions Land use policy Spatial analysis Tree planting |
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