Cloud changes in a warmer Europe

Cloud cover records for western Europe have been analysed in the context of the warming world analogue model described by Lough et al. (1983). It is found that cloud cover has generally increased in moving from a cold period (1901–1920) to a warm period (1934–1953). The exception to this general trend is over the central part of the area considered (Germany, France and some parts of Spain) where there is a tendency towards decreasing cloud as warming occurs. While the results presented here are not closely correlated with the temperature and precipitation results of Lough et al. (1983), there is support for their hypothesis that cloudiness increased in autumn over northern Europe. The suggestion that successful performance of numerical climate models in seasonal simulations might demonstrate adequacy in other climatic simulation modes is also examined It is shown that whilst there is good agreement with observations in one such numerical model in the seasonal simulation, there is no agreement in the case of a warming world in either the direction or the amount of cloudiness change.