A spatially explicit modeling approach to explore scenarios of sustainable agriculture futures

The transition to agricultural sustainability involves difficult choices and an understanding of the complex trade-offs associated with agricultural activities. Decision support tools and techniques assist in making the informed decisions for a transition to sustainable agriculture. Georgia Basin — Quite Useful Ecosystem Scenario Tool (GB-QUEST) is a computer-based, user-friendly tool that has been developed to look at the future sustainability scenarios of the Georgia Basin in British Columbia. The objective of this paper is to describe the agricultural model that has been developed for implementation in GB-QUEST. We present its framework, spatial methodology for land-use simulation, and the initial results of its application. The agriculture model is a spatial model that examines the social, economic and environmental consequences of user-defined agricultural development strategies. The model simulates changes in the Georgia Basin from the year 2000 to 2040 in decadal steps. User choices of local and global development factors, along with their "worldview" choices, are important inputs in the model that determine the effects on environmental and socio-economic systems. The model has two components — Generation of land-use scenarios, and Development of Indicator models. The first component uses cell-based spatial algorithms to simulate likely changes/conversions in land-use up to the year 2040. The approach used here integrates the functionality of Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) and Cellular Automata (CA) techniques in order to simulate the land-use conversions. It uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques for creating, storing and deriving the data sets required for the model. The second component develops the indicator models for relating scenario variables to socio-economic and environmental variables such as physical and economic yields, economic operation costs and nutrient surplus per unit area. These indicator models are used to evaluate land-use scenarios generated by the users. The model encourages understanding of sustainability, by allowing one to explore different possible scenarios of the future for their environmental and socio-economic consequences.