概率回归估计法在地震预报中的应用

根据1900年-1969年全球大地震（M≥7）的时空图,找出与中国大陆大地震（M≥7）有关的14个相关区,利用逐步回归的方法,对这些相关区逐一鉴别,选取较优的9个,再根据这9个相关区发生的大震来预测中国大陆在未来一年内会不会有大震发生。进一步对某一个地区,例如华北地区,运用同样的方法,亦可对未来一年的地震趋势作出估计。 对1976年中国大陆和华北地区地震趋势作了估计,并得到了验证。

APPLICATION OF THE METHOD OF PROBABLISTIC EGRESSIONAL ESTIMATION TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Based on a world seismicity map of large earthquakes （M≥7） for the period of years 1900 to 1969, fourteen correlative regions of occurrences of large earthquakes of the same magnitude within the continental territory of our country were found. From them, nine relatively adequate regions were selected by the method of successive regression. Then, from the seismicity of large earthquake occurrences of these nine correlative regions, the possibility of future large earthquakes which may occur in the continental territory of China within the coming one year was predicted. Furthermore, we estimated in the same way, the hazard of destructive earthqukes in a cetain given region, for instance North China, for the coming one year. The result of such estimation for continental China as a whole and North China for the year 1976 is rather satisfactory.