The increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and its implication on agricultural productivity II. Effects through CO2-induced climatic change

In a prior paper (Part I), the point was made that, assuming an unchanged climate, water use efficiency in agricultural crop production will likely be favored by the increase in CO₂ concentration projected to occur within the next half century. Since climatic changeis likely to result from the CO₂ concentration increase, its possible impacts on agricultural productivity must also be considered. An attempt to do so, using the Great Plains region of North America as a case study, is reported in this paper (Part II). A number of climatic models predict significant increases in surface temperature. Manabe and Wetherald's (1980) model provides the most specific projections for a hypothetical Northern hemisphere continent. That model also predicts an intensification of the hydrologic cycle with rainfall distribution altered so that some zones will receive more and some less as a result of a doubling in the atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The zone between 37 and 47° N latitude will suffer a reduction in availability of soil moisture. A number of regression models of grain yield as a function of temperature and precipitation have been used to anticipate the impacts of the projected climatic changes. The value of this approach is questioned. An alternative approach - the study of the migration of major agricultural crops across strong climatic gradients - is proposed. Changes in the geographical distribution of the hard red winter wheat zone in North America provide an example. The point is also made that factorscurrently limiting food production must be considered in order to predict the possible impacts of any given climatic change. In the central Great Plains today, the energy consumed by evapotranspiration often exceeds that supplied by net radiation since sensible heat advection from dryer regions to the south and west provides a major additional input of energy. If, as models project, the excess of precipitation over evaporation increases south of 37° N, the advection of sensible heat and, hence, the rates of evapotranspiration and degree of water stress on growing plants could be reduced in the adjacent regions to the north. Published as Paper No. 6123, Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station. The work reported was conducted under Regional Research Project 11-033 and Nebraska Agricultural Station Project 11-049. George Holmes Professor of Agricultural Meteorology, Center for Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology, Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska, 68583-0728.