RMAPS-CA在新疆区域预报效果对比检验与评估

为了提升新疆区域数值天气预报模式的精细化预报能力,引进北京城市气象研究院运行的快速更新多尺度分析和预报系统睿图,搭建3 km高分辨率的睿图—中亚系统(Rapidrefresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Central Asia,简称RMAPS-CA),将2017年1月和7月作为预报检验月份,对比分析了新搭建的RMAPS-CA系统与目前业务运行的沙漠绿洲戈壁区域同化预报系统(Desert Oasis Gobi Regional Assimilation Forecast System,简称DOGRAFS)的短期、短临预报效果,并针对2017年6月6—7日的降水过程进行对比。结果表明:(1)从高空的位势高度、温度、风要素预报结果看,RMAPS-CA系统冬季在中低层效果优于DOGRAFS系统,高层略差于DOGRAFS系统;而夏季的预报效果整体要优于DOGRAFS。(2)RMAPS-CA系统的2 m温度的预报效果整体要优于DOGRAFS系统,10 m风速的预报效果冬季要优于DOGRAFS,夏季略差于DOGRAFS。(3)降水检验看,RMAPS-CA系统在降水时段、落区和量级等方面的效果均优于DOGRAFS系统,尤其是对小量和大量级降水的预报。(4)从强降水过程的降水落区、强度以及站点降水预报的对比分析看,RMAPS-CA系统的降水预报效果更好。根据2017年代表月份的预报以及一次强降水过程的对比分析,RMAPS-CA系统的预报性能整体上优于DOGRAFS,可以在此基础上推进RMAPS-CA高分辨率系统建设。

Forecast effect comparison test and evaluation of RMAPS-CA in Xinjiang

In order to improve the precision forecasting ability of regional numerical weather forecast model in Xinjiang region. Based on the Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System (RMAPS) of Institute of Urban Meteorology, RMAPS-CA system with 3km-resolution was constructed. The results of the forecast in January and July 2017 were verified, comparative analysis of the newly constructed RMAPS-CA system and the current operation system DOGRAFS from short-term and imminent prediction effect, and a precipitation incident was analyzed. The results showed that:(1) From the forecast of height, temperature and wind factor forecast of high altitude, the result in the middle and low layer of RMAPS-CA system in winter was better than that of DOGRAFS system ,and the high level is slightly worse than DOGRAFS system; while the summer forecast effect was better than DOGRAFS system;(2)The forecast effect of the 2m temperature of RMAPS-CA system was better than that of DOGRAFS system, and the forecast effect of 10m wind speed was better than that of DOGRAFS system in winter and slightly worse than that of DOGRAFS in summer;(3)The precipitation test showed that the effect of RMAPS-CA system was better than that of DOGRAFS system in terms of precipitation period, fall area and magnitude, especially for small and large precipitation;(4) From the comparison and analysis of the typical precipitation process forecast, the prediction of precipitation area, intensity and station precipitation forecast of the process, the precipitation forecast effect of RMAPS-CA system was better. According to the prediction of representative months in 2017 and a heavy rainfall process, the prediction performance of RMAPS-CA system is better than DOGRAFS system on the whole, and the construction of RMAPS-CA high-resolution system can be promoted on this basis.