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Seismotectonics and large earthquake generation in the Himalayan region
Institution:1. National Disaster Management Authority, New Delhi 110029, India;2. CSIR-National Geophysical Research Institute (Council of Scientific and Industrial Research), Uppal Road, Hyderabad, India;1. CSIR-National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad 500 007, India;2. Institute of Seismological Research, Gandhinagar, Gujarat 382009, India;3. Earth and Climate Science Program, Indian Institute of Science Education & Research, Pune 411008, India;1. Department of Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur 208016, India;2. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur 208016, India;3. Department of Geography, Faculty of Letters, Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8522, Japan;1. Geological Survey of India, CHQ, 27 J.L. Nehru Road, Kolkata 700016, India;2. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, sez. CNT, via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy;3. Formerly at Geological Survey of India, Kolkata, India;4. Geological Survey of India, Bhubijnan Bhawan, Sector II, Saltlake City, Kolkata 700091, India
Abstract:Bounded by the western and eastern syntaxes, the Himalayan region has experienced at least five M ~ 8 earthquakes during a seismically very active phase from 1897 through 1952. However, there has been a paucity of M ~ 8 earthquakes since 1952. Examining of various catalogues and seismograms from the Gottingen Observatory, it is established that this quiescence of M ~ 8 earthquakes is real. While it has not been possible to forecast earthquakes, there has been a success in making a medium term forecast of an M 7.3 earthquake in the adjoining Indo-Burmese arc. Similarly we find that in the central Himalayan region, earthquakes of M > 6.5 have been preceded by seismic swarms and quiescences. In the recent past, based on GPS data, estimates have been made of the accumulated strains and it is postulated that a number of M ~ 8 earthquakes are imminent in the Himalayan region. We examine these estimates and find that while earthquakes of M ~ 8 may occur in the region, however, the available GPS data and their interpretation do not necessarily suggest their size and time of occurrence and whether an earthquake in a particular segment will occur sooner in comparison to that in the neighboring segment. We also comment on the inference of occurrence of M ~ 8 earthquakes based on M8 algorithm for the region. We conclude that while an M ~ 8 earthquake could occur any time anywhere in the Himalayan region, there is no indication as of now as to where and when it would occur. We impress on the need for preparedness to mitigate the pending earthquake disaster in the region.
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