1960-2009年汉中市气候变化特征及未来趋势

运用一元回归分析、Mann-Kendall和R/S方法，对1960-2009年汉中市气温、降水量和日照时数变化特征及未来趋势进行分析。结果表明：近50 a来，汉中市年平均气温以0.14℃/10 a的速率升高，并在1997年发生增温突变，其Hurst值为0.94,表明未来气温的变化与过去50 a有较强的持续性，仍将呈现上...

Characteristics of climatic change from 1960 to 2009 and its future trend in Hanzhong,Shaanxi province

Using methods of a linear regression analysis, a Mann-Kendall test and rescaled range analysis (R/S), the characteristics of air temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration from 1960 to 2009 and their future trends in Hanzhong were analyzed. The results show that the mean annual temperature increases with 0.14 ℃ per decade in the recent 50 years, and an abrupt change occurs in 1997. Hurst index of the annual mean temperature reaches 0.94, and it suggests that the future air temperature change is also in an increasing trend. Precipitation decreases with -28.45 mm per decade and fluctuates, while an abrupt change is not significant. Hurst index of precipitation is 0.75, and it suggests that the future precipitation would decrease successively. Annual sunshine duration decreases in the past 50 years with -56.42 hours per decade, and an abrupt change appears during 1979-1980. Hurst index of sunshine duration is 0.91, and it suggests that the future annual sunshine duration would decreases successively.