地基微波辐射计观测资料在一次雷电潜势预报中的应用分析

在利用对流参数建立湖北省雷电潜势预报的基础上，重点研究地基微波辐射计资料在改进雷电潜势预报中的应用价值，继而修正对流参数及其阈值区间，由此建立一种可通过后续参数订正实现的雷电短期潜势预报方法。首先对2013年4月29日一次西南涡东移造成的雷电过程中地基微波辐射计资料的可靠性进行了分析，继而通过比较基于单一数值模式和微波辐射计资料计算的不稳定参数与雷电活动的相关性后发现，85%以上的雷电样本活跃在K指数≥33 ℃、T_850-500≥23 ℃、A指数≥10 ℃和ΔT_d850≤3 ℃等指数范围内，而微波辐射计资料计算的6个不稳定指数显示，与雷电密集区对应的指数中，和雷电相关性较高的K指数、T_850-500、A指数分别为35 ℃、25 ℃和12 ℃，使用两种阈值分别对雷电潜势预报方程中的预报因子进行0，1化。个例检验效果表明地基微波辐射计在改进雷电潜势预报落区和概率方面有一定参考作用。 

AN APPLICATION ANALYSIS OF THE GROUND-BASED MICROWAVE RADIOMETERS OBSERVATION IN LIGHTNING POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY

Based on the establishment of Hubei lightning potential forecast using convection parameters, we mainly studied the ground-based microwave radiometers data in improving the application value of lightning potential forecast. The convection parameter and threshold were then modified, and then a lightning potential forecast method was formed by a correction parameter. With the data collected by the ground-based microwave radiometers in Wuhan and Jingzhou stations operated by the Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, the characteristics of vapor density, atmospheric liquid content, relative humidity and instability index measured by the microwave radiometers during a thunderstorm on April 29 2013 were analyzed. In this paper, the data reliability of the ground-based microwave radiometers was first analyzed, and then by comparing the correlation of convection parameters based on numerical model and microwave radiometers data, the instability index based on numerical model displays that K≥33 ℃, T_850-500≥23 ℃, A≥10 ℃ and ΔT_d850≤3 ℃ have a good correlation with the lightning, but the K index, A index and T_850-500 are different from the microwave radiometers, respectively above 35 ℃, 25 ℃and 20 ℃, compared with the lightning potential predictability calculated by the instability index of two groups with different thresholds. The results show that the ground-based microwave radiometers data have a certain value of reference in the improvement of lightning potential predictability.