全球环境变化对我国区域发展的可能影响评述

随着环境问题的日益突出,全球环境变化的区域响应已成为我国全球变化研究的优先领域和热点问题之一。国内外学者就全球问题与区域问题的结合达成共识:全球性问题的研究需要由区域工作来完成;区域性研究必须体现全球性问题。本文介绍了全球变化对区域发展影响评价的基本方法,特别是IPCC评价报告中采用的区域脆弱性、敏感性评价方法;概述了我国未来50年环境变化的可能情景;从自然生态系统变化、水资源短缺、沙漠化、农业生产等方面评述了全球环境变化对我国区域发展可能影响研究的进展和成果,最后指出了全球变化区域响应研究存在的问题,并对其发展方向作了展望。

An Assessment of Global Environmental Change and its Impacts on the Regional Dev elopment in China

Worldwide concern about possible climate change resulting from increasing concen trations of greenhouse gases has led governments and researchers to consider int ernational action to address the issue, and the regional response to the climate change has become the priority field of global environmental change in China Researchers have gradually gained a common understanding about the combining of global and regional issues: the global environmental change issues could not be solv ed unless it is supported by regional studies, and on the other hand, the region al studies should necessarily incarnate the global issues This paper i ntroduced the essential methods of assessing regional response to climate change , especially the regional vulnerability and adaptation assessment method that ha s been widely employed in IPCC’s assessment reports The major climate scenario s in the next fifty years in China were summarized on the basis of the related l iterature Then the author assessed the recent research --how the global envi ronmental change impacts the regional development, including natural ecosystem, water resource shortage, desertification problems and agriculture industry devel opment Further research was pointed out, however, to strengthen future assessm ent and to reduce uncertainties in order to assure that sufficient information is available for policymaking about responses to possible consequences of climate.