基于信息扩散理论的重庆北碚降水风险分析

为了解北碚地区的降水风险规律,减少地区旱涝引起的灾害损失.利用北碚区地面气象观测站的年降水观测资料（1981～2010年）,结合信息扩散理论模型,分析北碚地区的降水风险及成因.结果显示：（1）北碚地区降水的概率曲线为单峰型,峰值在1000～1100mm,夏季降水量离散程度比春、秋两季高,存在明显的旱季或涝季.（2）汛期降水量和年降水量的概率分布曲线趋势基本一致,也存在一些差异.（3）降水日分布特征显示雨量从21时开始增加,03时累积雨量为最大值,20时达到最低水平;降水频次从21时开始逐渐增加,并在08时达到最大.在暴雨小时降水量中5mm/h以下的降水次数最多,约占总次数的41％.

Analysis of Precipitation Risk Based on Information Diffusion Theory

In order to understand the risk of precipitation in Beibei area, decrease the disasters loss caused by the drought. The annual precipitation data of Beibei area from the ground observation station between 1961 of 2010 are used with the theory of information diffusion model, to analyze the risks and causes of precipitation in Beibei area. The results show： （1） The probability curves of precipitation in Beibei area are single peak type, the peak at 1000- ll00mm, the summer precipitation of discrete degree is higher than that of the spring, autumn, there has obviousflood or drought season, （2） The probability distribution curves of precipitation in flood season and annual precipitation have basic familiar trend with a little difference. （3） Rainfall days distributions indicate rainfall begin to increase from hour 21, maximum at 03; and minimum at 20. The precipitation frequencies gradually increase from 21 until reaches a maximum at 08. In the storm rainfall precipitation, 5mm/h or less types are dominant, accounts for about 41% of the total.