Seabirds as indicators: An exploratory analysis of physical forcing in the Pacific Northwest coastal environment

Bottom-up control, or physical forcing of upper trophic populations, is often cited as a major factor regulating marine species. In particular, seabirds are often cited as indicators of relative productivity and health of the marine environment. The degree to which physical forcing plays a dominant role and the mechanisms of effect remain unclear. We test the relationship between measures of oceanographic and atmospheric forcing, proxied by commonly available monthly to daily indices, and the response of populations of a ubiquitous seabird of the Pacific Northwest coastal environment, the common murre,Uria aalge. We constructed two models: an annualized bottom-up model that examines the degree to which population response variables, including population size, breeding success, and foraging parameters, are correlated with oceanographic forcing at space and time scales relevant to murre biology; and a daily direct forcing model that examines the degree to which diet choices reflect specific, local oceanographic signals. Our bottom-up model suggests that murres are regulated by bottom-up forcing, and that the strength of the association between physical change and population response may be mediated by density dependence. Our direct forcing model indicated that chick diet is affected by both local and remote parameters, including upwelling, tide, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We conclude that murres, and seabirds in general, can be used as indicators of local to basinwide physical change, but only under certain conditions: the life history of the species, and the specific local population, must be well known; a conceptual model that links life history traits to measures of physical change at biologically relevant space and time scales must be developed; and larger populations that are more apt to show density-dependent effects should be selected.