Projected 21st century trends in hydroclimatology of the Tahoe basin

With down-scaled output from two General Circulation Models (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, or GFDL, and the Parallel Climate Model, or PCM) and two emissions scenarios (A2 and B1), we project future trends in temperature and precipitation for the Tahoe basin. With the GFDL, we also project drought conditions and (through the use of a distributed hydrologic model) flood frequency. The steepest trend (GFDL with A2) indicates a 4–5°C warming by the end of the 21st century. Trends in annual precipitation are more modest with a dip in the latter half of the 21st century indicated by the GFDL/A2 case, but not the others. Comparisons with the Palmer Drought Severity Index show that drought will increase, in part due to the declining role of the snowpack as a reservoir for soil moisture replenishment. Analysis of flood frequency for the largest watershed in the basin indicates that the magnitude of the 100-yr flood could increase up to 2.5-fold for the middle third of the century, but decline thereafter as the climate warms and dries. These trends have major implications for the management of land and water resources in the Tahoe basin, as well as for design and maintenance of infrastructure.