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Inexact stochastic dynamic programming method and application to water resources management in Shandong China under uncertainty |
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| Authors: | J J Gu P Guo G H Huang |
| Institution: | 1. Institute of Ecological Simulation and Urban Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China 2. Centre for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083, China 3. Environmental Science and Engineering Program, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, V2N 4Z9, Canada 4. Environmental Systems Engineering Program, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, S4S 0A2, Canada 5. Energy and Environmental Research Center, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China |
| Abstract: | In this study, an interval parameter multistage joint-probability programming (IMJP) approach has been developed to deal with water resources allocation under uncertainty. The IMJP can be used not only to deal with uncertainties in terms of joint-probability and intervals, but also to examine the risk of violating joint probabilistic constraints in the context of multistage. The proposed model can handle the economic expenditure caused by regional water shortage and flood control. The model can also reflect the related dynamic changes in the multi-stage cases and the system safety under uncertainty. The developed method is applied to a case study of water resources allocation in Shandong, China, under multistage, multi-reservoir and multi-industry. The violating reservoir constraints are addressed in terms of joint-probability. Different risk levels of constraint lead to different planning. The obtained results can help water resources managers to identify desired system designs under various economic, environment and system reliability scenarios. |
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