地震前兆检验的地球动力学问题对地震预测问题争论的评述(之三)

地震前兆的效能检验问题既是地震预测研究中的一个基本问题，也是近年来围绕地震预测问题的一个争论焦点。传统的地震预测研究中关于地震前兆机理的一个基本假定，即地震前兆来自地震孕育过程中应力场的某种变化，与传统的地震前兆检验方案，即针对“异常”信息统计与地震之间的“对应”情况，并进行统计显著性检验，存在一个内在的逻辑矛盾。地震前兆的检验不是一个简单的统计问题，而是一个地球动力学问题，不考虑地球动力学的地震前兆检验是没有意义的，由此得到的检验结果则可能对相关研究造成误导。

Performance Evaluation and Statistical Test of Candidate Earthquake Precursors: Revisit in the Perspective of Geodynamics——Critical Review on the Recent Earthquake Prediction Debate

Performance evaluation and statistical test of candidate earthquake precursors is one of the fundamental problems in earthquake prediction study and controversial issues in the debate on earthquake prediction in recent years. In traditional earthquake prediction studies, a basic understanding of earthquake precursors is that these precursors originate from the change of stress field in the process of earthquake preparation. The traditional scheme for the evaluation of these candidate precursors, on the other hand, accounts for the correlation between the observed precursory change and earthquake occurrence, and then calculates the statistical significance of such a correlation. In this review, it is pointed out that, in the perspective of geodynamics, the above mentioned traditional understanding and test scheme are intrinsically incompatible with each other. Performance evaluation of candidate earthquake precursors is not simply a statistical problem as being treated in the recent earthquake prediction debate. Test of earthquake precursors is a geodynamical problem. Without the consideration of geodynamical models, the test of earthquake precursors is fundamentally misled and regrettably misleading.