气候变化与土地利用/覆被变化对中国北方农牧交错带水资源影响研究进展

中国北方农牧交错带对全球变化响应敏感，研究气候变化及土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）背景下北方农牧交错带水资源问题，对变化环境下生态脆弱区的水资源利用与管理具有重要意义。通过对北方农牧交错带气候与LUCC演变特征及其对水资源影响等方面的综合研究，总结得出：（1） 近几十年，该地区气候呈暖干化趋势，气温升高速率与降水减少速率均高于全球平均水平。（2） LUCC以农牧相互转化为主，土地利用结构未发生明显变化。（3） 该地区流域径流、地下水位与气温负相关，与降水量正相关，且降水作用更明显；近几十年来，LUCC成为影响该地区生态水文过程的主导因素，对水资源影响的贡献率越来越大。同时，针对目前研究中存在的问题及薄弱环节，提出未来研究的发展趋势和亟需重点加强的研究方向。

Research advances on the impact of climate change and LUCC for water resources in the northern agro-pastoral zone in China

The northern agro-pastoral interlaced zone is one of the most sensitive areas to cliamte change and human activity. The study of water resource change therefore in the interlaced zone under the background of climate change and land use/cover change（LUCC） provides an important scientific and practical significance for scientifically responding to the effective use and management of water resource in ecologically fragile aeras in a changing environment.Through the research on the characteristics of the climate and LUCC evolution in the northern agro-pastoral interlaced zone and their impact on water resources. The conclusions are as follows： （1） in the past 70 years， the climate in the northern agriculture-pastoral zone has shown a warming and drying trend， and the rate of temperature increase and precipitation decrease are higher than that of the global average. （2） LUCC is mainly based on the mutual transformation of agriculture and animal husbandry， and the land use structure has not changed significantly. （3） The watershed runoff and groundwater level in the region are positively correlated with temperature， negatively correlated with precipitation， and the effect of precipitation is more obvious； in recent decades， LUCC has become the dominant factor affecting the ecological and hydrological processes in the region， and the contribution rate of the impact on water resources has increased. Considering the problems and weakness in studies，we proposed the development trends of future research and key problems to be solved in the study.