Lagrangian ensemble model of Copepoda (Neocalanus cristatus) in the northwestern subarctic Pacific

A Lagrangian ensemble model describing the population dynamics of Neocalanus cristatus was developed. To describe the ecology of N. cristatus, life stage must be included in the model. For this purpose, a new zooplankton compartment, divided into nine life stages, was added to the North Pacific ecosystem model for understanding regional oceanography. In addition, we introduced Lagrangian particles for the copepod population. Each Lagrangian particle represented a population of the same cohort of copepods with information on representative age, developmental stage, growth rate, structural weight, and food satiation. The new model revealed that surviving cohorts are only matched with the phytoplankton bloom after the nauplii stages. The model showed that the existing phytoplankton concentration when copepodites of N. cristatus appear in the surface water determines the development pattern of copepodite stages. The timing of the seasonal phytoplankton bloom depends on climate change, and a sensitivity analysis showed that the multiple spawning strategy through time has an important role in matching the unstable seasonal bloom cycle on a daily basis. The model including the cohorts can collaborate closely with weekly or monthly observations to reveal the rapid response of the marine ecosystem.