不同水平年塔里木河流域“四源一干”可承载灌溉面积研究

利用水量平衡原理，基于流域水资源量及水资源利用水平、灌溉定额等资料，计算探讨了塔里木河流域“四源一干”现状水平年（2010年）和规划水平年（2020年、2030年）可承载灌溉面积、不同来水频率下规划年灌溉面积超载和生态水保证情况。结果表明：（1）现状水平年，流域可承载灌溉面积为129.06×10⁴ hm²，除和田河流域外其它区域均超载，超载面积为41.7×10⁴ hm²。（2）2020年，25%来水频率下，除开都-孔雀河流域其他区域均不超载。在50%与75%来水频率下，流域规划灌溉面积超载较大，分别为10.21×10⁴ hm²与28.05×10⁴ hm²，管理部门应对规划方案进行科学论证。75%来水频率下，流域生态水保证率为76%，表明枯水期生态水供应存在压力。（3）2030年，25%来水频率下，除开都-孔雀河流域其他区域均不超载。在50%与75%来水频率下，流域规划灌溉面积超载较大，分别为7.06×10⁴ hm²与24.09×10⁴ hm²。75%来水频率下，流域生态水保证率为81%，表明枯水期生态水供应仍然存在压力。研究结果为流域水资源配置及区域可持续发展提供了重要数据支撑与理论依据。

Irrigation area carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin in different years

This paper used water balance principle to calculate and discuss the irrigation area overload situations in 2010,irrigation area carrying capacity and overload situations in 2020 and 2020,ecological water guarantee situations in 75% runoff frequencies in 2020 and 2030 based on water resources quantity and water resources utilization level data in Tarim River Basin.The results showed as follows:(1) the irrigation area carrying capacity of four source streams and one mainstream in Tarim River Basin in 2010 is 129.06×10⁴ hm²,all basins except for the Hotan River Basin are overloaded,and total overload area is 41.7×10⁴ hm². (2) in 2020,all basins except for Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin are not overloaded in 25% runoff frequency.The planning irrigation area are overloaded by 10.21×10⁴ hm² and 28.05×10⁴ hm² in 50% and 75% runoff frequency respectively,so the local government should recognize the problems in planning irrigation area and put forward more scientific planning schemes.Guarantee rates of ecological water in 75% water frequency is 76%,which suggesting that in the planning year there is a certain pressure on the ecological water supply. (3) in 2030,all basins except for Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin are not overloaded in 25% runoff frequency.Planning irrigation area are overloaded by 7.06×10⁴ hm² and 24.09×10⁴ hm² in 50% and 75% runoff frequency respectively.Guarantee rates of ecological water in 75% water frequency is 81%,which suggesting that in the planning year there is a certain pressure on the ecological water supply.The study could provide data support and theoretical basis for the allocation of water resources and regional sustainable development.