不对称性相互依赖背景下中吉自由贸易实现路径——基于局部均衡理论的模拟

不对称性相互依赖是中国和吉尔吉斯斯坦经贸合作的常态，中吉自由贸易是丝绸之路经济带互联互通战略的重要组成部分，也是我国向西开展自贸区进程的突破点。文章运用局部均衡模型从BEC产品层面模拟分析了不同关税策略下中吉自贸区的贸易效应及本国经济效应。研究表明：在相同的关税削减幅度的情形下，2002-2016年间中吉贸易效应与其贸易额呈正相关；关税削减对中国和吉尔吉斯斯坦的贸易效应、福利效应及关税损失比较显著，尤其是中国，且对不同商品的影响存在显著差异，其中尤以工业品最为显著；综合考量贸易效应和福利效应，中国的最优策略是直接采取零关税，而吉国则是逐渐削减关税。

Way of free trade between China and Kyrgyzstan under the background of asymmetry interdependence:A simulation based on partial equilibrium theory

The asymmetry interdependence is the normal state of economic and trade cooperation between China and Kyrgyzstan.Free trade between China and Kyrgyzstan is an important part of the interconnection strategy of the Silk Road Economic Belt,and it is also a breakthrough point for China to carry out the free trade zone process to the west.The paper uses the partial equilibrium model to simulate the trade effects and domestic economic effects of China and Kyrgyzstan free trade zone under different tariff strategies from the BEC products.The research shows that under the same scope of tariff cuts,the changes in the trade effect between 2002 and 2016 in China and Kyrgyzstan are basically the same as the changes in the export trade of the two countries at that stage,which indicated that the trade effect is positively related to the trade volume.In 2016,the mutual reduction of tariffs between China and Kyrgyzstan has a significant impact on the trade effect,welfare improvement and tariff loss of the two sides,and there are significant differences in the impact on different commodities,especially for China's trade promotion.For China,the most important products for trade promotion and impact on China are processed industrial products.It is also the most obvious tariff loss to China.The most significant product for China's welfare improvement is industrial finished goods.Primary industrial supplies are the products that have the most significant impact on Kyrgyzstan's trade promotion.The most significant products for Kyrgyzstan's welfare improvement and tax losses are processed industrial products.The key to achieving the free trade between China and Kyrgyzstan is to find a balance between the two sides, so as to increase the enthusiasm of the Kyrgyz Republic to build a free trade zone.Based on comprehensive considerations,China's optimal strategy is to directly adopt zero tariffs,while Kyrgyzstan is gradually reducing tariffs.