渤海中部和胶辽海峡地震复发模式和地震危险性

根据历史地震资料分析渤海中部与胶辽海峡地震周期模式。 时间可预测模式比滑动可预测模式更接近胶辽海峡历史地震的时间序列特征。 按时间可预测模型外推, 胶辽海峡下次强震可能发生在 21世纪初期。渤中地区历史地震序列特征复杂,一些关键地震的震级修订造成预测模型改变。使渤中地震发生时间的不确定性增大,不利于渤海地震长期预测。影响长期预测准确性的主要因素是历史地震震级的可靠性、准确性,直接影响复发模型的建立。

Earthquake recurrence mode and seismic risk in middle Bohai Sea and Jiaoliao Haixia

Earthquake recurrence model in middle Bohai Sea and Jiaoliao Haixia is analyzed based on history earthquake data. The conclusion is that the time predictable model is closer to the time sequence characteristics than slip predictable model. According to time predictable model, it is concluded that the next strong earthquake may occur in the early period of 21st century in Jiaoliao Haixia. Slip predictable model can be applied in middle Bohai Sea. This increases the uncertainty of occurrence time of earthquakes in middle Bohai Sea, and it is unfavorable for long term earthquake prediction there. The main factors which affects the accuracy of long term prediction is the reliability of the history earthquake magnitude, it affects the establishment of reoccurrence model directly.