水化学参量的中强地震中短期预报方法在河北及邻区的应用检验

应用“九五”子专题“水化学参量异常识别标志体系及预报方法研究”的研究思路、预报方法对河北省及邻区1983年以来的水氡观测资料进行了全时程扫描.在预报指标的使用过程中,根据本省的水氡资料特征作了适当调整.结果表明,“中期、短期异常预报跟踪方法”在河北及邻近地区中强地震前有较好的预报效果,预报效能R值评分结果表明,70%以上井孔的水氡资料通过R值检验,具有监测预报能力.

Test on medium and short term prediction methods for medium and strong earthquakes with hydrogeochemical parameters

Based on the methods derived from the project of "Study on anomaly recognition for hydrogeochemical parameters and prediction methods",hydro-radon data since 1983 in Hebei are processed in the whole time and space range. Prediction indexes are adjusted according to the characteristics of hydro-radon data in Hebei.The results show that the method of "tracing prediction method from medium term to short term"has good effect before medium and strong earthquakes in Hebei and its adjacent area. The results of the R-value evaluation show that the 70% well-network hydro-radon data has prediction ability.