调制模式、调制比预报方法应用朔望潮的理论依据

朔望潮触发和调制地震的发生已是一个基本事实，朔望潮即是半月潮幅度最大时段再迭加半日潮和全日潮。由于朔望潮量值大，所以它作用到震源系统上影响震源过程的７种效应也大，因而朔望潮与地震的相关性较好。由此作者认为用朔望潮比单纯用半日潮来判断震源过程的不稳定性更好，它可以回避震源地方的很多复杂问题而不影响预报地震的效能。

The Theoretical Basis of the Application of the Syzygial Tide to the Prediction Methods of Modulation Model and Modulation Ratio

It is a basic fact that earthquake occurrence can be modulated and triggered by the syzygial tide The syzygial tide is that the maximum amplitude period of semi monthly tide added to the semi diurnal and full diurnal tides As the value of the syzygial tide is large,the seven sorts of effects on seismic source process of the syzygial tide affecting the seismic source system are great,and therefore the correlation between the syzygial tide and earthquakes is relatively good On the basis of that,the authors of this paper consider that it is better to determine the instability of seismic source process by use of the syzygial tide than by use of the semi diurnal tide only;the method can avoid many complex problems of seismic sources without affecting the efficacy of earthquake prediction