山东省土地利用时空变化与驱动力分析

以山东省作为研究区域，利用分辨率为100m的2005年、2008年、2010年和2013年土地利用遥感解译数据和统计年鉴资料，结合ArcGIS空间分析和数理统计等方法，分析山东省土地利用时空变化，通过多元回归模型揭示土地利用变化与经济社会驱动因素之间的变量关系。研究表明，山东省耕地面积从1036.55×104hm2到1024.34×104hm2不断减少，建设用地面积从214.05×104hm2到275.75×104hm2不断增加并且大量占用耕地、林地、草地。耕地向山东省的东部丘陵地区和西部、北部地势低洼平坦地区转移，建设用地向东南部和西北低洼平坦地区转移较多。2008—2010年综合土地利用动态度最为强烈，分别是2005—2008年和2010—2013年的9倍和12倍。人口增长、经济发展、产业结构改变等因素与土地利用变化的相关性较强，这些因素在土地利用类型变化中发挥着重要的作用。

Study on Temporal and Spatial Variation and Driving Forces of Land use in Shandong Province

Setting Shandong province as the study area, by using remote sensing interpretation data and statistical yearbook data in 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2013 with a resolution of 100m, combining with ArcGIS spatial analysis and mathematical statistics, temporal and spatial changes of land use in Shandong province have been analyzed. The variable relationship between land use change and economic and social driving factors have been revealed by multivariate regression model. It is showed that the cultivated land area of Shandong province decreases from 1036.55×104hm2 to 1024.34×104hm2, and the area of construction land increases from 214.05×104hm2 to 275.75×104hm2, and occupied cultivated land, woodland and grassland. The cultivated land is transferred to the eastern hilly area and the west of Shandong Province, the northern lowlying flat area, and the construction land to the southeast and northwest lowlying flat area. The construction land is transferred from the southeast to the Yellow River basin more by more. The dynamic degree of comprehensive land use is the strongest from 2008 to 2010, which is 9 times and 12 times of that in 2005~2008 and 2010~2013 respectively. Population growth, economic development and the change of industrial structure have strong correlations with the change of land use. These factors play an important role in the change of land use types.