京津冀地区光伏开发空间适宜性及减排效益评估

京津冀地区作为中国重要的能源消费基地,近年在产业转型与发展中对清洁能源的需求不断增加。光伏发电是中国“十四五”期间加速能源结构转型,早日实现碳中和目标的关键举措与重要抓手。本文以京津冀为研究区,通过构建“地形—气象—成本”光伏开发适宜性综合评价指标体系,计算了光伏开发适宜性指数,刻画出京津冀地区2018年光伏开发适宜性的空间格局特征,进而定量评估不同开发适宜性情景下光伏发电潜力与减排效益。研究表明：① 京津冀地区光伏开发适宜区占到区域总面积的22%,一般适宜区面积最广,“燕山—太行山”一线是适宜区与不适宜区的主要分界线,各类适宜区主要分布在承德、张家口和保定市3个市。 ② 京津冀地区光伏发电发展潜力巨大,开发非常适宜区和较适宜区的年发电潜力是2018年京津冀地区电力消耗的3倍。③ 光伏发电节能减排效果显著。在将非常适宜区和较适宜区全部开发情景下碳减排量为京津冀2018年排放量的47%。④ 土地利用限制、大型输电网络和储能系统是制约光伏发展的主要因素。总体来看,虽然大规模光伏开发仍存在一定的限制条件与技术瓶颈,但在全球气候变化加剧和社会经济发展进入“低碳脱碳”新常态的背景下,京津冀地区的大规模光伏开发仍是助力区域早日实现碳中和目标、优化能源结构和提升人民福祉的重要途径。

Evaluation of suitability and emission reduction benefits of photovoltaic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

As a fundamental energy consumption base in China, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region has experienced an increasing demand for clean energy in recent years. Photovoltaic power generation is a key for accelerating the transformation of energy infrastructure in China and achieving the goal of carbon neutrality during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025). Taking the BTH region as a study area, we construct a comprehensive evaluation index system of "terrain-weather-cost" to calculate a photovoltaic development suitability index. We subsequently analyze the spatial pattern characteristics of photovoltaic development suitability in the study area in 2018 and quantitatively examine power generation potential and emission reduction effect under different scenarios of photovoltaic development suitability. Results indicate that: (1) The suitable areas for photovoltaic development account for 22% of the total area of this region, and the largest portion of this area is moderately suitable for photovoltaic development. The "Yanshan-Taihang mountains" line geographically divides the areas that are suitable and unsuitable for photovoltaic development, and a range of potential areas are distributed in prefecture-level cities of Chengde, Zhangjiakou and Baoding. (2) Photovoltaic power generation in the BTH region has great potential. Specifically, the annual power generation potential of the extremely and highly suitable areas is about three times more than the total power consumption in the same year of 2018. (3) The energy-saving and emission reduction effects of photovoltaic power generation are remarkable. If the extremely and highly suitable areas are used for photovoltaic development, there will be an approximate 47% reduction in carbon emissions across the whole region, according to the data of 2018. (4) Despite being restricted by limited land resources and the absence of an advanced transmission network or energy storage system, large-scale photovoltaic development is still a viable solution to energy supply issues. It still improves energy infrastructure, achieves the goal of carbon neutrality, and enhances the well-being of citizens in the context of global climate change and the new low-carbon economy.