青藏高原及横断山区地质灾害易发区空间格局及驱动因子

青藏高原及横断山区位中国西南部,地貌类型复杂,地质灾害频发,严重威胁到西南地区人民生命财产安全,尤其影响进藏交通线的通达度。系统研究该区地质灾害易发区空间格局及驱动因子,可为青藏高原及横断山区地质灾害风险防范及地质灾害的防灾减灾救灾提供重要理论支撑。研究结果表明,基于随机森林构建的判识模型对于灾害点的判识精度均高于80%,甚至达到91%,可准确模拟与预测研究区各分区的地质灾害点。研究区地质灾害易发点主要分布在横断山区南部与东北部以及青藏高原中南部地区,且以小型及中型规模地质灾害为主（占比为87%）。综合分区Ⅰ~Ⅲ的地质灾害易发区面积分别为17.5万km²、17.4万km²与27.5万km²。各综合分区地质灾害驱动因子研究表明,横断山区南部区域（综合分区Ⅰ内）小型及中型地质灾害的主要驱动力为道路建设导致的沿途坡面稳定性变化（贡献率为20.2%）;横断山区东北部区域及青藏高原地区（综合分区Ⅱ~Ⅲ）小型及中型地质灾害的主要驱动力为植被覆盖状况的变化对于坡面稳定性的影响（贡献率分别为23.6%与27.3%）。此外,综合分区Ⅱ~Ⅲ内影响小型及中型地质灾害空间格局的第二个驱动因子为道路建设导致的沿途坡面稳定性的变化（贡献率为15.7%）与河流对于周边坡面的侵蚀作用（贡献率为17%）。

Spatial pattern and attribution analysis of the regions with frequent geological disasters in the Tibetan Plateau and Hengduan Mountains

The Tibet Plateau and the Hengduan Mountains are located in the southwest of China, being featured by intricate landforms and deep valleys with large slopes. Due to the impacts of fluvial-induced erosions and intense geologic processes, frequent occurrences of geological disasters such as landslides, collapses and debris flows can be observed and are challenging regional sustainable development. Here we developed a random forest (RF) model to identify the geological disaster points within each sub-region. We found that the accuracies of RF models in sub-regions were all larger than 80% and can reach 91%, which evidenced modelling performance of the developed model in this study in identification of the locations with frequent occurrences of geological disasters. Meanwhile, the locations and/regions with frequent occurrences of geological disasters were found mainly in the southern part of the Hengduan Mountain area, and northeast and south parts of the Tibet Plateau, where 87% of all disaster events ranged from small scale to middle-scale. Specifically, from the view of sub-region, areas with frequent occurrences of geological disaster were 17.5 \times {10}^4km², 17.4 \times {10}^4km² and 27.5 \times {10}^4km², respectively. Due to the spatial heterogeneities of landforms, climatic conditions and disturbance intensities from human activities, major causes of geological disasters (without considering classes of geological disasters) vary from sub-region to sub-region. For sub-region Ⅰ (south part of the Hengduan Mountain area), the main driving factors behind the small-scale and middle-scale geological disasters are impacts from constructions of roads and vibration from transportation (attribution ratio (AT) as 20.2%). Besides, main driving factors behind the small-scale and middle-scale geological disasters for both sub-regions Ⅱ~Ⅲwere impacts from vegetation coverages on slope stabilities, whose ATs are 23.6% and 27.3% respectively. Besides, the second most important causes behind small-scale and middle-scale geological disasters for sub-regions Ⅱ~Ⅲ were impacts from constructions of road and transportation (AT as 15.7%) and impacts from river erosions on slope stabilities (AT as 17%) respectively.