1995—2015年中国人口迁移的时空变化特征

本文利用人口普查数据,估算了1995—2015年中国地（市）间人口O-D迁移流和迁移率,结合GIS空间分析和社会网络分析方法,揭示了20年间中国人口迁移的时空变化特征。研究发现：① 中国人口迁移由相对不活跃、局部地区参与的“低活性时代”,逐步走向相对活跃、绝大多数地区参与的“高活性时代”。② 人口迁移地域类型的时空演化过程呈现出各活跃型地（市）不断扩散,而非活跃型地（市）大幅缩减的特点。③ 人口迁移网络以“胡焕庸线”为界,东、西两侧迁移流“东密西疏”且差异悬殊,这一空间格局具有很强的稳定性和顽健性。④ 在人口省内迁移持续增强,以及跨省迁移中沿海三大城市群吸引力的“此消彼长”和西南地区吸引力不断增强的背景下,东中西部地区的人口迁移流场结构表现为：沿海地区主要城市群内部分化和影响范围减弱,中部地区（除湖北省）未能演化出以省为单元的独立社区,西部地区则是西北相对稳定而西南持续变动。

Spatio-temporal evolution of migration in China from 1995 to 2015

Based on the data of usual residence from 2000 and 2010 censuses and 1995 and 2015 micro-censuses and using the method proposed by Abel G.J.,this paper estimates the OD migration flows among prefectural-level administrative units in China for the period 1995-2015.By using the indicators of migration flows and migration rates,and the methods of GIS spatial analysis and community detection in social network analysis,it further reveals the characteristics of spatio-temporal evolution of migration in China since 1995.The results can be summarized as follows.(1) The scale and intensity of migration in China have been increasing,while their differences among regions have been gradually decreasing.This suggests that migration has experienced a gradual transformation from a "low-activity era" including a limited number of regions to a "high-activity era" involving the majority of regions.(2) Six regional types of migration among prefectural-level administrative units,namely,largescale active net in-migration,small-scale net in-migration,large-scale active net out-migration,small-scale active net out-migration,active balanced migration and inactive migration,are identified.The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the regional types of migration in China indicate that each active migration regional type has been undergoing a change of continuous diffusion,while the inactive migration regional type has seen a significant reduction over time.(3) The spatial patterns of migration are quite different between regions on both sides of "Hu Line",manifested in the fact that the scale and intensity of migration flows on the southeastern side of the line is higher than that on the northwestern side,which means that the "Hu Line" is quite stable and robust in the last 20 years.(4) Patterns of migration flows indicate that while intra-provincial migration has continuously strengthened,inter-provincial migration has exhibited more complicated spatial patterns,mainly reflected in different changing trends of attractiveness to migrants among the three coastal city clusters,and the increasing migration flows within southwest China.As a result of combined effects of inter-and intra-provincial migration flows,the structure of migration flows in China’s eastern,central and western regions has been undergoing changes,resulting in the internal differentiation of urban agglomerations and the declining spatial scope under their influence in the coastal areas,Hubei as the single independent "city community" in central China,as well as the relative stability in northwest China and continuous change in southwest China.