中国西部社会、经济与生态的协调发展时空变化

采用层次分析法（AHP）建立中国西部社会、经济与生态评价指标体系，并计算社会、经济与生态指数，对西部各地区社会、经济与生态进行综合分析评价。通过构建耦合协调模型，定量分析了社会、经济与生态两两之间的发展模式。结果表明：（1）1990-2010年，西部各地区经济持续增长，其中甘肃以东地区经济发展显著，社会水平与经济发展保持平行提高，生态水平基本保持静止，而西南地区生态水平明显高于西北地区，西北地区生态水平波动大。（2）社会系统与经济系统的发展模式互动趋势明显，社会进步相对于经济发展具有短暂滞后性；而生态系统反映较迟钝，生态与社会、生态与经济模式的发展趋势不明显，但与环境库兹涅茨倒“U”型曲线发展模式一致。（3）中国西部各地区经济、社会和生态系统之间的协调度均呈增长趋势，说明随时间的推移，各个系统之间耦合协调度趋于协调发展。但2005年和2010年的协调度增长不明显，个别地区经济生态协调度出现下降趋势，生态水平的下降造成协调度增长停滞。

Dynamic change and spatial difference of coordinated development on economy-society and ecology of western area in China

Since reform and opening，China's economic has developed rapidly and social progress is obvious. It is a positive change from the interaction among the society，economy and ecology. Their interaction can provide the necessary basis for the coordination of the relationship between the implementation of ecological compensation， environmental change and macro-control studies. Since implementing the strategy for development of the western region of China in 2001，the development focus has changed from the eastern coastal areas to central and western inland regions. The west area of China is an ecologically fragile and economically underdeveloped area. And it is the special area of the country's overall ecological security，economic security，which is a comprehensive，coordinated and sustainable development region. Because researching the coupling relationship between economy，society and ecology of western region based on time and space is necessary，this paper chooses the western region as the research area. Based on the statistical data of western region in 1990，1995，2000，2005 and 2010，this paper used the analytic hierarchy process（AHP）to establish the index system between economy，society and ecology of the western region，and analysis evaluation in the western typical region. Economic system includes economies of scale，economic structure and economic efficiency. The social system consists of four places，scientific and technological progress，infrastructure， living standards and urbanization. Ecosystems include water resources，land resources，climatic conditions，biological resources and ecological pressure. And a dynamic coupling model was built for monitoring the coupling relationship between economy，society and ecology. The coupling coordination level was used to measure the degree of coordinate development between the three systems. The statistical data come from China statistical yearbook. In 1997 Chongqing was promoted to build one of municipalities，so the statistical data of Chongqing in 1990 and 1995 refer to data of Chongqing from Sichuan Province statistical yearbook data，the data of Sichuan Province exclude the dada of Chongqing. In order to eliminate the impacts of differences in the dimension on the indicators，two types of positive and negative indicators were set up with a dimensionless handling. The results show as follows：（1）In nearly 20 years，the economy in western regions sustained rapid growth. And economic level develop obviously in the regions east of Gansu Province. Economic development improved living standards and remained relatively parallel compare with social progress. The ecological level was significantly higher and its fluctuation was smaller in southwest region than that of northwest area. Ecology was improved from 1995 to 2000 and had a deterioration trend after 2000. （2） Interactive trend of society and economy systems’ development modes was obvious，and comparing with economic development，the society progress had a short lag. （3）The coupling coordination level was growing between the three systems. It was revealed that the relationships between the various systems have a trend to present a coordinated development with the passage of time. But the change of economy-ecology coordination degree was not obvious and some areas had declined trend from 2005 to 2010. Degradation of ecological level causes the stagnant growth of coordination degree.