新疆水分亏缺量时空变化分析

利用新疆101个气象站1961-2010年的逐月气候资料计算出冬、 春、 夏、 秋四季和全年水分亏缺量, 使用气候倾向率、 Mann-Kendall检测以及基于ArcGis的混合空间插值法对近50 a新疆水分亏缺量时空变化进行了分析. 结果表明: 新疆水分亏缺量的空间分布总体呈现南疆大于北疆、 东部大于西部、 平原和盆(谷)地大于山区的分布格局. 近50 a来, 新疆冬、 春、 夏、 秋四季和年水分亏缺量分别以-3.146 mm·(10a)^-1、 -7.708 mm·(10a)^-1、 -14.650 mm·(10a)^-1、 -6.965 mm·(10a)^-1和-32.364 mm·(10a)^-1的倾向率呈极显著的减小趋势, 并分别于20世纪70年代末至80年代中期发生了突变性的减小. 但全疆各地水分亏缺量的变化具有明显的区域性差异, 以突变年为节点, 突变后较突变前, 水分亏缺量减少幅度的空间分布总体呈现平原大、 山区小的格局. 水分亏缺量减小, 对缓解新疆日益尖锐的水资源供需矛盾、 降低气候的干燥度、 减少单位面积农田和自然植被需水量、 改善脆弱的生态环境具有重要意义.

Analyzing the Spatial-Temporal Variations of Water Deficit in Xinjiang Region

Based on monthly climate data from 101 meteorological stations in Xinjiang Region from 1961 to 2010, the fundamental annual and seasonal spatial-temporal change characteristics of water deficit were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall test and three-dimensional and quadratic trend surface simulation and inverse-distance square weighting residual error revising based on GIS. The main results are as follows: the water deficit has very obvious difference from place to place of Xinjiang Region. Generally, the annual and seasonal water deficits are more in south than in north, more in east than in west, and more in plain and basin (valley) than in mountain regions. In recent 50 years, the water deficit in winter, spring, summer, autumn and annual has significantly decreased with the rate of -3.146 mm?(10a)^-1, -7.708 mm?(10a)^-1, -14.650 mm?(10a)^-1, -6.965 mm?(10a)^-1 and -32.364 mm?(10a)^-1, with significant abrupt decreasing from the late 1970s to the mid 1980 s. However, the seasonal and annual water deficit decrease ranges have distinct regional difference. In general, the decrease range is large in plains than that in mountain areas, that is, the amount of water deficit is larger in drier areas than that in more humid areas. It has important significance that water deficit decreasing will ease the contradiction between water supply and demand, reduce climate dryness, reduce farmland and natural vegetation water demand, and improve vulnerable ecological environment in Xinjiang Region.