基于GIS的兰州滑坡与泥石流灾害危险性分析

频繁发生的灾害愈来愈对人类社会造成巨大影响, 遥感、地理信息系统、全球定位系统和网络技术日益在减灾行动中发挥重要的作用. 兰州区域地质岩性、构造断裂、地震活动带、地表侵蚀强烈和地形起伏破碎等因素造成了兰州滑坡与泥石流灾害的发育, 夏季暴雨、人类工程活动等诱发下灾害频繁, 风险加剧. 针对兰州地区滑坡与泥石流等山地灾害对区域社会经济的影响, 通过建立区域滑坡与泥石流灾害的空间数据库, 在GIS技术辅助下实现了专家经验模型和Logistic模型对滑坡与泥石流灾害危险性的预测, 其中滑坡Logistic模型准确性达到85.3%, 专家经验模型准确性达到74.2%; 泥石流Logistic危险性预模型准确性达到80.5%, 专家经验模型准确性达到90.5%. 随着研究的深入, 综合遥感、地理信息系统、全球定位系统和网络技术的灾害研究与应用将在灾害防治中发挥重要的作用.

GIS-based Analysis of Landslide and Debris Flow Hazard in Lanzhou

Frequent geologic disasters cause huge impact on human society.Remote sensing,geographic information systems,global positioning systems and network technology play increasingly great role in disaster reduction.In Lanzhou,the regional lithology,tectonic faults,seismic activity,surface erosion and undulating terrain have contributed to crushing landslide and debris flow hazards.Summer torrential rains and human engineering activities induce disasters in every summer.Through establishing spatial database of regional landslide and debris flow disasters,using spatial analysis,the expertise model and Logistic model for predicting the probability of landslide and debris flow hazards are achieved in this study.The predicted landslide accuracy of Logistic model and the empirical model reach 85.3% and 74.2%,respectively.The predicted debris flow accuracy of Logistic model and the empirical model reach 80.5% and 90.5%,respectively.