1951~2004 年西藏产业结构的演进特征与机理

采用产业经济学、计量经济学、统计学和GIS 中的相关方法和技术， 对西藏 1951~2004 年期间产业结构演进的特征进行了定量评价。分析了1951~2004 年西藏产业结构演进的四个阶段及其特征，利用指标计算分析了三次产业及其内部结构、就业产业结构、产业结构升级转换等层面的动态演进过程， 然后运用偏离-份额分析法(SSM) 计算了1975~1984 年、1985~1994 年和1995~2004 年三个代表时段产业结构演进的数量特征，并结合GIS 方法分析了西藏农林牧渔业产业重心的时空动态演进过程。最后，归纳出西藏产业结构 演进的主要驱动力是需求结构约束、资源禀赋差异、政府引导的巨大作用和潜力较大的高原特色产业技术创新能力，并针对性地提出了“优化第三产业结构，保证第一产业发展，重点 扶持第二产业”的对策。

Characteristics and Mechanism of Tibet's Industrial Structure Evolution from 1951 to 2004

Industrial structure is the base and core of economic structure, and its evolution relates greatly to the speed and quality of economic development. Based on use of the correlative methods in industrial economy, econometrics, GIS and statistics, Tibet's industrial structure evolution from 1951 to 2004 is quantificationally estimated. After pointing out the four phases of Tibet's industrial structure evolution and their different characteristics, this paper analyzed the dynamic evolution of the three industries and their internal structure, employment and production structure, and upgrade and conversion of industrial structure by indicators. Furthermore, it concluded the analysis on quantitative characteristics of the internal structure evolution in the three typical periods of 1975-1984, 1985-1994 and 1995-2004 by using the SSM method and also the transformation of industrial barycenter of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery by using GIS technique. Then the main driving forces of Tibet's industrial structure evolution are summarized as follows: restriction of demand structure, diversity of resource gift, the guidence of government and policies which play a very important role in the industrial evolution and the rapid development of techno-innovation ability of burgeoning industries uniqueness in the plateau region. Finally, strategies aiming at "optimizing the tertiary industry's structure, ensuring the primary industry's advantages, and supporting the secondary industrial development specially" are brought forward.