气候与土地利用变化对水文水资源的影响研究

水资源短缺和水患灾害已成为全球关心的重大问题。气候与土地利用变化对流域水资源和旱涝的影响以及由此产生的社会经济后果已引起人类社会的广泛关注。深入综合地开展这方面的研究对国民经济建设和可持续发展规划决策有重要的意义。通过分析总结已进行的有关研究工作 ,对该领域的研究进展作了简要回顾 ,讨论了现有工作的不足和今后的研究内容和方法。

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND USE-LAND COVER CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

Most important consequences of climate change and land use land cover change are alterations in regional hydrologic cycles, water resource supply demand balance, hydrological extremes and subsequent effects on social economy. In this paper, previous assessments are reviewed and inadequacies in past studies are discussed. For the past time, attention has focused on assessing the impacts of climate change on hydrological resource or the hydrological consequences of land use land cover changes respectively. It is pointed out that system matie dynamic methodology should be adopted to conduct integrated impact assessment of climate change and land use land cover change on water supply demand balance and social economy. For evaluating effects of climate change and land cover change on hydrological process, extremes and soil erosion, it is necessary to develop a physically based distributed model which integrate geographical information systems with hydrologic and water erosion models.