西藏自治区经济发展与跨世纪产业结构调整*

《西藏自治区国土规划》为西藏自治区社会经济的跨世纪发展制订了宏伟的蓝图。在经济发展方面,《规划》重点突出了经济持续高速增长和产业结构大幅度调整的双重目标;提出了稳步发展第一产业,着力发展第二产业,加快发展第三产业的方针。我们结合西藏自治区的社会、经济状况、资源背景和产业结构现状,详细分析了区域经济发展、产业结构演替与投资、科学技术、资源、环境支撑条件之间的关系,认为从目前国家和西藏自治区的财力及区域人口、资源、环境持续发展的观点来看,规划中提出的经济持续高速增长和产业结构大幅度调整双重目标的同步实现是较为困难的。建议西藏自治区从实际出发,因地制宜,实施稳步发展第一产业、有重点地发展以区内资源为依托的第二产业、大力发展第三产业,保持经济的适度增长和人口、资源、环境的协调、持续发展的战略。

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENT DURING THE TRANS-CENTURY PERIOD IN TIBET

In economic development, "The Territorial Planning of Tibet Autonomous Region" emphasized on the double aims-sustainable rapid economic growth and industrial structure adjustment. In addition, the primary industry will be developed steadily, the secondary industry will be developed emphatically, and the tertiary industry will be developed rapidly. According to the theory of industrial economics and our practical research, we find a ruler, that is: the relationship between GNP growth rate and investment increase rate is a positive correlation, and the relationship between GNP growth rate and industrial structure change rate is a negative correlation in certain period. On the present conditions of society, economy, resources, environment and industrial structure in Tibet, we have a detailed analysis on the relationships among regional economic development, industrial structure adjustment and the supporting capacity of investment, the science and technology level of Tibet, quality of labor, recourses, and environment.According to the financial support from both central government and the local government as well as sustainable development principles of population, resources and environment, it would be very difficult to gain the double aims in the same period of time. In addition, the balance of fragile ecosystem in Tibet would be distroyed, and the natural environment in Tibet would be polluted, in case we exploit mineral and other resources on a large scale without planning. It would be a fatal disaster to Tibet.Because of the particular social and natural situations in Tibet, the social and economic development pattern in Tibet should be different from other regions. First, the non-pollution, non-loss and regenerable social and natural resources should be developed, such as Buddhist temples, folkways,forestry and so on. Second, the sustainable natural resources, such as wind energy, waterpower,geotherms, should be developed. The non-regenerable natural resources and those with pollution problems, such as coal, metal and non-metal mineral recourses should be developed at last. Our suggestions are as follows: in Tibet, the primary industry should be developed steadily, the secondary industry should be developed in the advantageous fields of Tibet, and the tertiary industry should be developed emphatically. Also, it is very important for Tibet to develop with coordination of population, resources and environment.