Climate variability in the south-eastern tropical Pacific and its relation with ENSO: a GCM study

About a third of the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the HadCM3 coupled general-circulation model is shown to be associated with variability in the south-east tropical Pacific (SETP) area. Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies along the east Pacific tend to precede ENSO anomalies. In HadCM3, SST tendencies in the SETP area are controlled mainly by surface latent heat fluxes and short-wave cloud forcing. Interannual SST anomalies in the SETP tend to propagate meridionally. In the winter season (JJA), this is consistent with a wind-evaporation-SST (WES) mode. Coupling with the strato-cumulus cloud (Sc) cover is critical in reducing the evaporative damping of the WES mode, and external forcing is provided by extratropical circulation anomalies. In spring, SETP variability and ENSO are coupled via the low-level circulation, resulting in a mutual reinforcement. Cloud-cover anomalies are not strongly controlled by local SSTs, and appear mainly dependent on atmospheric meridional advection. The apparent association between cold SSTs and Sc cover does not reflect a positive local feedback. These conclusions are not sensitive to the model’s warm SST bias, associated with reduced stratocumulus clouds and weak southerly wind stress, which depends on erroneous near-field orographic forcing of the coastal circulation. Some of our results are supported by similar evidence from observational datasets and other CMIP3 models.