中国近海平均海面变化研究

本文在分析了中国沿海各长期验潮站年平均海面具有同升同降特点的基础上,应用方差分析方法求得年平均海面变化周期为5年、11年和19年.采用11年比较法,精选13个基本验潮站,和选择接近11年平均海面差值中数的时间段,求得中国近海近期(30余年)年平均海面上升速度为1.6±0.3mm/年.该结果与国内外大多数学者研究结果相一致,但方法简单易行.

The Mean Sea Level Changes in China Sea Area

The annual sea level of each long-term tidal station along the Chinese coast is analysed.The result shows that it has the feature of synchronistic rising and lowering.Its changing periods of 5,11 and 19 years are obtained by using the method of variance analysis. The comparison method of 11 years is used because the long-term tidal stations along the coast lack the observed tidal data with the record length of more than 38 years.The rising speed of 1.6±0.3 mm per year for the mean sea level along the coast in recent years(over 30 years) is obtained based on the data analysis of 13 selected benchmark tidal stations with a selected time interval close to the difference average of mean sea level of 11 years. This result agrees well with that of most researchers at home and abroad,and the method of analysis is easy to use.