从经验性预报向以物理为基础的概率预报过渡的若干问题

前言 地震预报是一个既古老又年轻的课题。早在二千七百多年前我国就开始有地震记载。公元132年,东汉张衡发明了世界上最早的地震仪——候风地动仪。但是,世界性的比较科学的地震预报研究大体上从本世纪六十年代开始。日本从1965年开始执行第一个地震预报五年计划。苏联虽自1948年阿什哈巴德地震之后就提出地震预报,但是,在地震学、地球物理和地球化学等方面探索前兆,真正取得进展也始于六十年代末。我国有计划大规模开展地震预报从1966年邢台地震现场开始。美国地震预报起步稍晚,但进展很快。 二十多年的观测、研究和预报实践推动了地震预报事业的发展。地震预报已从束手无策的

DISCUSSION ON SEVERAL PROBLEMS ABOUT THE TRANSITION FROM EXPERIENTIAL FORECAST TO PROBABILITY PREDICTION

Through analyzing and studing the development and statusquo of earthquake prediction research in the last 20 years,it has been pointed out that a longer process is needed for the transition from experiential earthquake prediction to probability prediction on the base of physics. But this process is an inexorable trend. The probability problems of earthquake prediction in each stage of the long .mid, short and imminent period are studied in this paper. The concept and the method of calculation related to conditional probability,probability gain and comprehensive probility are stated in detail. In addition,the efficiency evaluation for earthquake monitoring and the method of earthquake forecast are analyzed. And some research problems in comprehensive prediction are discussed also. It is considered that the research of hypocentral physics and seismogenic process have important meaning for finding physically meaningful precursory factor.